India ka public debt size ke hisaab se manageable nazar aa raha hai, lekin us debt ko service karne ki cost ne ek nayi bahas ko janm diya hai. Indian School of Business ke finance professor Prasanna Tantri ne kaha hai ki debt ratio ko dekhne ke saath-saath interest burden ko bhi gehrai se samajhne ki zarurat hai.
Tantri ke mutabik India ka public debt lagbhag 80% GDP ke aas-paas hai aur overall ratio broadly stable hai. Unhone bataya ki 2025-26 mein Centre ka debt ratio 56.1% raha, jo Covid ke baad ke 62.8% ke level se kaafi neeche hai. Saath hi, states ke debt mein haal ke samay mein kuch badhotri dekhi gayi hai.
Lekin Tantri ke hisaab se asli chinta debt ka size nahi, balki us par diya ja raha interest hai. Centre ke liye interest payment lagbhag 3.7% GDP ke barabar hai, jabki states ko shamil karne par yeh burden kareeb 5.5% GDP tak pahunchta hai.
Tantri ne khaas taur par is baat par dhyan dilaya ki India ka debt-to-GDP ratio US aur UK jaise deshon se kam hai, phir bhi debt servicing ke liye GDP ka ek bada hissa kharch ho raha hai. Unhone kaha ki kai aise desh bhi hain jinka debt ratio India se zyada hai, lekin unke comparison mein bhi India ka interest burden kuch maamlon mein zyada dikhta hai. Brazil aur Egypt jaise kuch exceptions bhi hain.
Professor ka kehna hai ki is situation ko sirf assumptions ke basis par samajhne ke bajay detailed analysis ki zarurat hai. Unke mutabik yeh samajhna zaroori hai ki jab debt stock manageable hai, to usko service karne ki cost itni zyada kyon hai.
Unhone debt debate ke beech ek important distinction rakha hai. Unke mutabik debt ratio reasonable dikh sakta hai, lekin uski cost concern ka subject hai.
Yeh debate author Anand Ranganathan ki taraf se India ke overall debt par uthaye gaye sawaalon ke baad aur tez hui. Ranganathan ne kaha ki Centre par lagbhag Rs 201 lakh crore ka debt hai aur Centre aur states ko mila kar general-government debt 80% GDP se upar hai.
Ranganathan ne Centre ke interest bill par bhi sawaal uthaya. Unke mutabik FY27 mein interest bill Rs 14 lakh crore se zyada budgeted hai aur yeh Centre ke revenue ka lagbhag 40% hissa banata hai.
Unhone kuch states ke borrowing pattern ko lekar bhi concern jataya. Ranganathan ka kehna tha ki kuch rajyon mein borrowing ka ek hissa salaries, power subsidies aur cash transfers jaise expenses mein ja raha hai, na ki sirf long-term assets banane mein.
Is assessment par Ministry of Information and Broadcasting ke senior adviser Kanchan Gupta ne alag rai rakhi. Gupta ne kaha ki sirf debt stock ko dekhkar fiscal sustainability ka final conclusion nahi nikala ja sakta.
Gupta ke mutabik Covid ke baad Centre ka debt ratio neeche aaya hai aur isliye fiscal trajectory ke lagataar kharab hone ka claim sahi nahi hai.
FY27 ke liye government ne fiscal deficit 4.3% GDP aur central debt lagbhag 55.6% budget kiya hai. Effective capital expenditure ko 4.4% GDP ke aas-paas rakha gaya hai.
Gupta ne IMF ke assessment ka bhi hawala diya aur kaha ki medium term mein India ka debt ratio decline karne ka projection hai aur sovereign-stress risk ko moderate assess kiya gaya hai.
Interest payment aur revenue receipts ke comparison par Gupta ne kaha ki Rs 14.04 lakh crore ka interest bill aur Rs 35.33 lakh crore ki revenue receipts lagbhag 40% ka ratio banate hain. Unke mutabik interest-to-revenue ratio fiscal space ko samajhne ka ek indicator hai, lekin ise akela insolvency ka test nahi maana ja sakta.
Gupta ne yeh bhi kaha ki agar states women-oriented transfers par Rs 2 lakh crore kharch kar rahe hain, to sirf isse yeh prove nahi hota ki wahi amount borrowing se finance hua hai. Unke mutabik government budgets fungible hote hain aur kisi specific expenditure ko borrowing se jodne ke liye state-level revenue balance, borrowing, capital expenditure aur debt sustainability ko saath mein dekhna hoga.
Is poori bahas se ek baat saamne aati hai: India ke debt ko sirf total amount ya debt-to-GDP ratio se judge karna kaafi nahi hai. Interest burden, revenue generation, borrowing ka use, capital expenditure aur future growth ko ek saath dekhna zaroori hai.
Prasanna Tantri ki warning isi point par focus karti hai ki manageable debt stock ke bawajood agar interest cost bahut zyada hai, to fiscal space par uska pressure samajhna zaroori hai. Wahi doosri taraf Kanchan Gupta ka argument hai ki debt sustainability ko samajhne ke liye broader fiscal picture aur borrowing ke actual use ko dekhna chahiye.
Disclaimer: Yeh report available public information aur Business Today ki 30 August 2026 ko published report ke aadhar par tayyar ki gayi hai. Is report mein diye gaye economic figures, statements aur expert views ko context ke saath pesh kiya gaya hai. Prasanna Tantri, Anand Ranganathan aur Kanchan Gupta ke views unke publicly reported statements ke roop mein diye gaye hain. Debt sustainability, fiscal deficit aur interest burden ko lekar final assessment ke liye official government documents aur original data sources ko bhi dekha jana chahiye.
Source Reference: Business Today
Published Date: 30 August 2026
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