Netanyahu Leads the Race but Faces a Coalition Challenge

Partial results from Israel's general election show Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's political bloc ahead of its main rival, former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, but unable to secure a parliamentary majority. With 97% of ballots counted, Netanyahu's Likud party and its far-right and ultra-Orthodox allies were projected to win 53 seats in the 120-member Knesset. Eisenkot's Yashar party and three other Jewish opposition parties were expected to secure 48 seats.

Neither side has enough seats to govern independently. Both leaders have said they intend to form a coalition, setting up difficult negotiations that could determine Israel's political direction for the coming years. The outcome also places Arab-led parties in an unusually influential position, with their combined representation projected to reach 19 seats.

However, most Jewish parties have ruled out working with Arab-led parties, narrowing the options for building a stable government. The final distribution of seats could also change as officials count hundreds of thousands of absentee ballots.

Election Results Leave Both Political Blocs Short

The initial count suggests Netanyahu's bloc performed better than early exit polls indicated. Those polls had projected a closer contest, with some showing the opposition's Change Bloc ahead and others suggesting a tie or a narrow advantage for Netanyahu.

As counting progressed, the prime minister's alliance moved into the lead. Yet its projected 53 seats remain well below the 61 needed for a parliamentary majority. The result is also a substantial decline from the number of seats Netanyahu's bloc previously controlled.

Eisenkot has presented the election as an opportunity for political change. After the initial exit polls, he argued that voters had rejected the existing government and promised to work with his partners to establish a new administration. Netanyahu, meanwhile, called for a strong right-wing government and rejected the idea of relying on Arab parties for parliamentary support.

Israel's Central Elections Committee began counting as many as 480,000 absentee ballots on Thursday. The ballots include votes from soldiers, diplomats and hospital patients who could not reach polling stations on election day. Under Israel's proportional representation system, the final count could alter how seats are allocated among the parties.

President Isaac Herzog is expected to receive the official results before consulting political factions and inviting a leader to attempt to form a government. The process could take weeks. If coalition negotiations fail, Israel could face another election.

Security, Accountability and National Identity Shape the Vote

This election was the first since the Hamas-led attacks of October 7, 2023, and the subsequent wars involving Gaza, Lebanon and Iran. For many Israelis, the vote was a decision about national security, political accountability and the country's future direction.

Campaign issues included responsibility for the security failures preceding the October 7 attacks, military service requirements for ultra-Orthodox Jewish men, judicial reforms and Israel's international standing.

Some voters wanted a change in leadership, arguing that officials responsible for the security failures should not remain in power. Others supported Netanyahu, citing continuing threats to Israel and concerns about relations with neighbouring communities.

Turnout reached 77.7%, the highest level in more than two decades, according to President Herzog. He praised the participation and urged political leaders to approach coalition negotiations with an open mind to avoid another round of voting.

Arab Parties Gain Influence Amid Political Divisions

Arab-led parties are projected to nearly double their parliamentary representation, driven by increased turnout among Arab Israeli voters, who make up about one-fifth of the population. Their projected 19 seats could become a deciding factor if the two main blocs fail to assemble a majority.

Mahdi Kabaha, an activist who campaigned to increase Arab voter participation, described the result as historic. Joint List leader Yousef Jabareen said many Arab voters wanted to remove far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir from office. Ben-Gvir has advocated annexing the occupied West Bank and encouraging Palestinians to leave Gaza.

United Arab List leader Mansour Abbas expressed hope that his party could work with Eisenkot's bloc to reach the 61 seats needed for a majority. Yair Golan, leader of the left-wing Democrats party, also urged opposition partners to consider cooperation with Arab parties.

But such an alliance faces serious obstacles. Eisenkot has previously set conditions for cooperation, including recognition of Israel as a Jewish and democratic state. Right-wing parties within his broader opposition bloc have rejected an alliance with Arab-led parties.

Election Allegations Add to the Political Tension

The election dispute has expanded beyond coalition negotiations. Netanyahu's Likud party accused Arab-led parties of electoral misconduct, alleging bribery, threats, violence, fraud and the use of prohibited software to encourage voters. The party did not provide evidence in its complaint to the Central Elections Committee.

The committee said the allegations would be examined as part of a wider post-election review. Its chairman, Justice Noam Sohlberg, subsequently instructed Israel's domestic security service, Shin Bet, to investigate suspicions of improper influence involving foreign funding.

The allegations included a reported claim, cited by the Haaretz newspaper, that Qatar had funded efforts to increase turnout in Arab communities. The committee chairman did not publicly provide further details.

Likud described the alleged interference as an attack on Israeli democracy. Sami Abu Shehadeh, chairman of the Balad party within the Joint List, rejected the accusations, calling them an attempt to discredit Arab voters and challenge the election outcome.

Qatar also denied involvement. Foreign Ministry spokesman Majed al-Ansari said the country had neither interfered in Israel's election nor funded activities intended to influence the result.

Israel Faces Difficult Choices After the Vote

The election results expose the competing pressures shaping Israeli politics. Netanyahu's bloc has emerged ahead, but its seat count leaves it dependent on negotiations and political compromises. Eisenkot's opposition bloc faces the same mathematical problem, alongside disagreements over whether Arab-led parties should be included in a governing arrangement.

The outcome will influence decisions on security policy, military service, judicial reform and relations with Palestinians and neighbouring countries. It will also test whether Israel's political parties can reach an agreement after a campaign marked by deep divisions over leadership and national identity.

The final absentee ballot count could change the balance, although the available figures do not guarantee that either bloc will secure a majority. President Herzog's consultations will provide the next formal step, but the success of the process will depend on whether political leaders can find partners willing to support a government.

The Road to Government Remains Uncertain

Netanyahu's lead gives him an advantage, not a clear path to power. Eisenkot still has an opportunity to assemble an alternative coalition, but cooperation with Arab-led parties remains politically contentious. Meanwhile, allegations of foreign interference and electoral misconduct could add further tension as the official results are finalised.

Israel now faces a familiar but consequential challenge: turning a divided electorate's votes into a functioning government. If neither side can build a majority, the country may have to return to the polls.

For now, the election has delivered a clear message about the limits of both blocs. Neither has secured enough parliamentary support to govern alone, and the final outcome will depend on the negotiations that follow.